Data analysis techniques for Detection and Attribution in climate studies

Date and Time: 
Tuesday, April 5th, 2016
Center Green
Philippe Naveau
In climatology,  the question of Detection and Attribution (D&A)  is fairly well defined:  ("Detection" is the process of demonstrating that climate has changed in some defined statistical sense, without providing a reason for that change and "Attribution"  is the process of establishing the most likely causes for the detected change with some defined level of confidence, see the IPCC definition). 
The field of statistics  has become one of the mathematical foundations in D&A studies because computing uncertainties represent   difficult inferential challenges when  analyzing climate model outputs.  
In this context, we will give a brief overview on the main statistical concepts underpinning the D&A and proposes new methodological approaches to   revise  return periods for record events in a changing climate. We will show the advantages of our method  throughout theoretical results and simulation studies.
Speaker Description: 

Philippe is Research Scientist at the “Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement”, in France. He specializes in statistical climatology and hydrology, extreme value theory, time series analysis, spatial statistics.

PDF icon NaveauSEA2016.pdf5.88 MB

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